Betting Markets, Polls and Bias from Elections 2024
In this episode of FOMO Investing, we unpack the outcome of the 2024 elections from a betting market, polling data, and what biases might explain what made them get the odds on the outcome quite wrong.
We touch on topics like the wisdom of crowds, the efficient market hypothesis, and how these new betting markets could hedge traditional financial markets. We discuss whether betting on elections is a legitimate hedging tool or just a gamified gamble.
We discuss what may have driven poll bias. How analyst predictions for a very tight race may have impacted betting markets. We also discuss how this led to a disconnect that resulted in betting market odds, which had 75/25 odds in favor of Kamala winning the popular vote.
